Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W2 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.1 | 1.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 7.8 | 6.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 9.3 | 6.1 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 10.7 | 12.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.2 | 20.1 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 13.3 | 5.1 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.6 | 17.8 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 15.1 | 11.0 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.8 | 0.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jake FunkRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.8 | 1.9 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.1 | 5.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.7 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.4 | 3.9 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.8 | 1.2 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 11.5 | 17.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 6.2 | 7.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.1 | 16.6 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 6.0 | 6.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 16.5 | 16.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.2 | 22.1 | +15.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 3.6 | 3.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 4.2 | 2.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 9.9 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 6.4 | 18.8 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.8 | 4.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.8 | 4.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 14.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | 1.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 13.3 | 12.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.1 | 3.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 14.2 | 18.9 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nick MullensQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 12.8 | 19.3 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 4.7 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 4.6 | 11.1 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 5.3 | 4.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 16.8 | 15.9 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 18.7 | 13.6 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 7.8 | 7.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.3 | 9.1 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 2.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 9.4 | 8.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.9 | 6.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse