Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 14.0 | 13.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | 13.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | 1.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.6 | 15.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.1 | 2.7 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | 2.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 13.9 | 6.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 4.0 | 13.8 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 17.1 | 8.2 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.9 | 3.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 6.6 | 7.3 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 18.5 | 21.9 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 6.8 | 17.1 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.3 | 15.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 14.5 | 17.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.8 | 3.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.5 | 1.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.0 | 3.2 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse