Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 2.6 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 10.3 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 4.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | 10.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Riley LeonardQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.6 | 7.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 0.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 0.8 | −16.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 7.8 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 20.8 | 11.4 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.8 | 16.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 6.0 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 13.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 2.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 1.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 7.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.3 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | 3.7 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 6.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 11.0 | 15.4 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.2 | 15.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.5) | 11.5 | 21.3 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse