Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W3 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 14.6 | 6.7 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 14.6 | 6.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 9.2 | 7.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | 29.4 | +19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 16.5 | 12.2 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 1.4 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Velus Jones Jr.RB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 15.2 | 19.2 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 21.6 | 16.1 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.2 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 5.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | 8.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 12.9 | 6.3 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 0.3 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 4.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 15.8 | 10.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 10.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 19.3 | 15.7 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 16.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 4.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | 8.3 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 14.9 | 20.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | 8.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 26.0 | 15.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.8 | 3.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.0 | 5.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | 23.6 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.4 | 5.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 11.1 | 9.8 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.3 | 15.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse