Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.3 | 0.9 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 9.5 | 8.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.3 | 1.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 5.4 | 4.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.9 | 9.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.5 | 2.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.2 | 5.2 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.3 | 2.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.5 | 1.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 14.6 | 12.3 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 15.3 | 8.1 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.1 | 2.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.6 | 3.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 0.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 2.2 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 19.7 | 19.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 7.5 | 2.7 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.7 | 0.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 10.2 | 5.1 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.8 | 6.4 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 12.7 | 7.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.9 | 6.4 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.4 | 0.0 | −14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.5 | 10.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 5.7 | 1.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.3 | 2.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse