Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W1 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 22.6 | 8.5 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 6.0 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 1.0 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 13.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.3 | 3.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.8 | 6.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.8 | 5.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 4.7 | 9.6 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.4 | 3.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.1 | 14.8 | +1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.7 | 2.3 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.8 | 4.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | 1.5 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 9.6 | 9.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 8.2 | 3.7 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.9 | 1.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.9 | 25.9 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 19.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 9.5 | 8.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 12.6 | 24.5 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 7.0 | 24.2 | +17.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 7.4 | 12.0 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 5.4 | 4.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.9 | 9.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.4 | 10.6 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.5 | 2.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.2 | 5.2 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 3.3 | 2.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.5 | 1.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 5.0 | 4.2 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.0 | 0.0 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.1 | 2.3 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.1 | 5.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.6 | 3.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse