Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 3.6 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 6.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 19.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 14.1 | +10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack StollTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 0.4 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 4.3 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 21.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 2.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 2.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 7.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 10.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 8.8 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 21.0 | 17.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 2.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected −0.2) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 14.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 6.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 1.4 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4) | 3.0 | 4.2 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.5) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 13.4 | 6.1 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 1.5 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse