Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.5 | 2.1 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.0 | 15.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.3 | 9.2 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 4.5 | 5.7 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.1 | 1.8 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.7 | 4.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.5 | 5.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 7.7 | 27.4 | +19.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 13.0 | 21.4 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.3 | 1.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.9 | 5.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 12.2 | 18.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.4 | 8.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 11.9 | 3.0 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 11.4 | 12.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.0 | 6.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.9 | 4.2 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 15.5 | 19.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.5 | 6.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 7.9 | 14.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.3 | 2.3 | −14.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse