Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2)16.59.7−6.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)18.17.2−10.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Alec IngoldRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.10.0−3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2)12.69.6−3.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brock WrightTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.51.8−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.31.8−1.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0)19.815.5−4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)9.55.0−4.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Davis AllenTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)3.50.0−3.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)26.517.7−8.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Sione VakiRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.3)4.92.7−2.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.73.1−4.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0)8.90.0−8.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0)5.51.7−3.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)8.53.1−5.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Josh OliverTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)3.40.0−3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)6.30.0−6.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jauan JenningsWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)6.11.1−5.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.2)15.712.7−3.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeeJay DallasRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)2.30.2−2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)10.77.0−3.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.93.0−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Hayden RucciTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Blake CorumRB LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.3)6.93.5−3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)11.710.6−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)7.10.0−7.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)12.35.6−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)5.81.9−3.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.3)2.00.1−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Carson WentzQB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2)13.06.3−6.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)12.410.5−1.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Alvin KamaraRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)8.87.2−1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Tyler ConklinTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.35.9−2.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Noah FantTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.70.0−4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)16.58.5−8.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Brock WrightTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Travis EtienneRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)9.67.1−2.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.0)13.25.3−7.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)9.34.1−5.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Sione VakiRB DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected −0.3)4.43.0−1.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Myles PriceWR MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Bryce LanceWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.11.8−4.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Max BredesonRB MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Barion BrownWR NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2CJ DonaldsonRB NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.00.2−1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse