Matchup edge · RB myth
Stacked boxes: every call
Backs who hold up against eight or more in the box lose less against defenses that stack the box (negative split × high rate = penalty).
2024 backtest
1–7
12.5% vs 38.2% baseline
2025 backtest
1–9–1
10.0% vs 45.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–0
100.0% vs 61.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 2–16–1 | 11.1% | 42.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 2–16–1 | 11.1% | 42.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 12.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 26.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Stacked boxes vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 18.2 | 13.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 12.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 4.6 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 3.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 5.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Stacked boxes vs TB, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 2.3 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 9.2 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Stacked boxes vs TB, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | 13.6 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse