Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth

Stacked boxes: every call

Backs who hold up against eight or more in the box lose less against defenses that stack the box (negative split × high rate = penalty).

2024 backtest

1–7

12.5% vs 38.2% baseline

Win rate 12.5% (95% 2.2%–47.1%) vs baseline 38.2%

2025 backtest

1–9–1

10.0% vs 45.3% baseline

Win rate 10.0% (95% 1.8%–40.4%) vs baseline 45.3%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–0

100.0% vs 61.8% baseline

Win rate 100.0% (95% 20.6%–100.0%) vs baseline 61.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB2–16–111.1%42.1%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.52–16–111.1%42.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Stacked boxes calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)18.712.6−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16James CookRB BUFFade (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.426.4+7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Stacked boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)16.710.1−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected +0.4)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASFade (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected −0.4)4.39.5+5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James CookRB BUFFade (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected −0.5)20.710.7−10.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3)3.70.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Stacked boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3)18.713.1−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.4)18.213.5−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)10.410.2−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Stacked boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)16.012.4−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Stacked boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)11.84.6−7.2❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse