Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Man coverage: every call
Receivers who beat man coverage (and QBs who scramble against it) gain against man-heavy defenses; zone-beaters gain against zone-heavy ones.
2024 backtest
20–30–3
40.0% vs 49.0% baseline
2025 backtest
28–32–7
46.7% vs 49.7% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–5–2
50.0% vs 49.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 44–49–8 | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| RB | 3–7 | 30.0% | 40.5% |
| TE | 1–2–1 | 33.3% | 39.1% |
| WR | 0–4–1 | 0.0% | 63.7% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 46–61–10 | 43.0% | 49.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 2–1 | 66.7% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Geno SmithQB NYJ | Boost (Man coverage vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 8.8 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Man coverage vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Man coverage vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 20.4 | 23.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 19.4 | 19.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik WillisQB MIA | Fade (Man coverage vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 20.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Geno SmithQB NYJ | Boost (Man coverage vs DET, expected +0.3) | 14.3 | 26.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Man coverage vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 12.6 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Man coverage vs DET, expected +0.3) | 23.6 | 40.8 | +17.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Man coverage vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 6.2 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Man coverage vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 20.0 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse