Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 13.7 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.4) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 18.1 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs IND, expected +0.4) | 17.4 | 17.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 28.0 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 17.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 19.9 | 17.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 2.2 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 12.0 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 4.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 7.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 6.1 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 23.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 3.9 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −1.8) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 11.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 4.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 2.3 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 10.3 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 15.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 20.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse