Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 12.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 12.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 11.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh ReynoldsWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 7.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 7.9 | 7.4 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs TB, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 12.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 12.6 | 27.5 | +14.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 13.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 9.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.8) | 16.7 | 15.2 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.9) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | 29.3 | +16.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 19.0 | 15.8 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 8.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.3 | 41.3 | +27.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 12.8 | 3.0 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | 18.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 21.7 | +14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 11.3 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 8.4 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 10.9 | 13.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 7.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 4.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 7.3 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 6.6 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 13.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 15.9 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 18.5 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 13.2 | 8.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 3.2 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | 3.5 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.8) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh ReynoldsWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 4.4 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 15.0 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 6.4 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 8.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 8.1 | 0.0 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 1.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 1.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 10.2 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 17.3 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 8.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.4) | 4.9 | 1.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 12.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 33.1 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | 7.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 0.0 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 12.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.3 | 10.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | 17.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 7.7 | 1.9 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 2.3 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 4.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 9.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 6.9 | 22.2 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 2.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 3.2 | 6.0 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 9.4 | 17.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Davante AdamsWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 14.7 | 8.0 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 2.9 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 7.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 4.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.4 | 5.7 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 14.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 20.1 | 8.7 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 5.0 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 7.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 18.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | 15.5 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 8.7 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse