Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.6) | 18.2 | 31.1 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −1.0) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.0) | 14.7 | 2.9 | −11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 21.5 | 18.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.1 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 12.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 10.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 9.0 | 3.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 13.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 10.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 16.6 | 11.2 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 7.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 2.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | 9.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 18.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.8 | 3.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +3.3) | 21.7 | 11.1 | −10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.2) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 5.4 | 4.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.2) | 20.0 | 17.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 4.1 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 3.6 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.9) | 8.2 | 15.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +3.3) | 20.9 | 17.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 4.5 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 5.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 5.1 | 19.2 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 20.4 | 15.1 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5) | 16.0 | 24.2 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 7.3 | 20.4 | +13.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 10.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 8.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 10.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.7) | 9.5 | 7.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 5.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.9) | 16.1 | 1.9 | −14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.5) | 7.7 | 8.3 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.2) | 12.8 | 2.0 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | -0.3 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 30.6 | +17.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | 2.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.3 | 11.9 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.9) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.7) | 10.3 | 16.0 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 24.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.2) | 17.4 | 11.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 17.7 | +12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 10.4 | 5.6 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 2.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 18.7 | 10.3 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 14.5 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +2.3) | 16.4 | 8.7 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 18.5 | 20.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.3 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 16.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 9.3 | 20.1 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 20.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 6.5 | 8.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 13.9 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | 17.9 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse