Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 0.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.9) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 6.6 | 12.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 2.3 | 8.6 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 1.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 14.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.3) | 7.6 | 1.2 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 14.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +1.4) | 15.9 | 7.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.7) | 13.2 | 19.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.6 | 4.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.9) | 18.5 | 9.5 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 16.4 | 11.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | 7.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.6) | 21.6 | 46.2 | +24.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 13.8 | 16.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 28.6 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 10.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.7) | 15.0 | 8.9 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 4.9 | 5.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.2) | 13.1 | 3.3 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.5) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 8.2 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 13.4 | 2.4 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.1) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.9) | 15.2 | 11.7 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.9) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.7) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.8) | 5.8 | 2.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.0) | 16.2 | 13.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 5.8 | 4.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 3.7 | 8.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 8.2 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.9) | 18.7 | 20.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 19.6 | 24.9 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 2.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 2.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.8) | 10.8 | 27.2 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 3.6 | 0.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.6) | 8.2 | -0.2 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.5) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.8) | 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 14.1 | 5.3 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 4.0 | 2.8 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 35.3 | +16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.9) | 22.0 | 12.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.2) | 13.9 | 6.0 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse