Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | 4.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 13.2 | 4.9 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 24.5 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.8) | 16.8 | 23.4 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 2.7 | 0.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.9) | 10.9 | 5.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.9) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +1.3) | 12.9 | 16.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 7.2 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.7) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 11.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 3.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.5) | 12.9 | 12.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.0) | 14.3 | 13.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 1.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 18.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 8.3 | 10.8 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 16.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 19.7 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.0 | 0.9 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.7 | 7.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | 1.3 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −2.2) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 8.9 | 2.1 | −6.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | 31.1 | +13.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.9) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 17.8 | 10.3 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 19.3 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.0 | 9.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 2.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 3.3 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 1.7 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 4.8 | 11.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.1) | 17.9 | 20.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.8) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 22.6 | 19.3 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 9.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 3.0 | 1.7 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7) | 3.5 | 1.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 8.3 | 16.8 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 12.5 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | 9.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.5) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 13.3 | 11.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 16.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.2 | 5.7 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 15.8 | 22.3 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.9) | 12.3 | 18.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 8.9 | 7.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 17.7 | 17.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 23.8 | 15.9 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 15.0 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 12.7 | 17.0 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 6.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse