Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 12.5 | 5.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.4 | 8.8 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 1.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 0.5 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 10.3 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 3.4 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.7) | 15.9 | 14.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.7) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.8) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 4.7 | 2.6 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +1.1) | 14.4 | 24.9 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 10.6 | 8.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.8) | 10.9 | 8.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | 11.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.8 | 5.3 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 5.0 | 1.4 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 3.9 | 8.9 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 19.0 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 5.9 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 0.5 | −12.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 9.1 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.0) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 10.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.0) | 18.1 | 12.3 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.5) | 19.7 | 29.4 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | 0.4 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 12.7 | 22.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 5.8 | 0.4 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 9.0 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 14.8 | 14.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +2.0) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 15.6 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 10.0 | 18.8 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.6) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 0.3 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 19.2 | 10.8 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | 4.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 2.1 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 7.9 | 8.8 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.7) | 18.8 | 26.3 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 0.3 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | 12.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | 7.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.7) | 15.9 | 14.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.3) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.9) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 4.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 7.3 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 27.0 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 14.9 | 12.3 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 3.6 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 7.8 | 8.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 0.0 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 9.2 | 3.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse