Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 6.7 | 4.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.6) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.5 | 0.8 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 13.5 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 5.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 8.5 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.6) | 16.4 | 5.0 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 0.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 17.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.1 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | 8.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 10.3 | 9.2 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.2) | 17.9 | 4.9 | −13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 16.5 | 24.9 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 21.6 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 9.0 | 7.7 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.6) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 2.4 | 2.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.0) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.4) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 24.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 13.8 | 41.8 | +28.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.8) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 13.3 | 2.8 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 26.8 | +23.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 19.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 12.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 15.7 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | 3.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.6) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −2.1) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 16.6 | 9.8 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.3 | 2.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 26.2 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.9) | 23.3 | 15.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 15.0 | 3.5 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 12.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.4 | 12.5 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.3) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 10.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse