Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.5)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock BowersTE LVFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jake TongesTE SFFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3)4.50.0−4.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Travis KelceTE KCFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Evan EngramTE JAXBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)8.80.0−8.8voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Darren WallerTE NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Evan EngramTE JAXBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W15Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5)8.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3)8.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5)8.92.1−6.8voidBacktest ·
2024 W8T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7Logan ThomasTE WASBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7Brycen HopkinsTE LARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W3George KittleTE SFBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7)12.1––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse