Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 21.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 11.9 | 6.8 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 14.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 13.6 | 6.4 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.2 | 1.4 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.9) | 18.5 | 25.9 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 16.6 | 5.7 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | 16.1 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 9.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 15.6 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 18.4 | 16.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 12.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 29.5 | 15.7 | −13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −1.3) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 1.8 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 8.4 | 0.1 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 5.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 1.5 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 2.5 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | 2.1 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | 6.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | 5.8 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | 12.2 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 21.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 5.3 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 1.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.0 | 8.3 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 15.9 | 18.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 6.5 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.6) | 17.1 | 11.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 14.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 16.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 23.8 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 18.7 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | 1.2 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 6.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | 13.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 12.8 | 29.1 | +16.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 36.8 | +19.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 9.9 | 7.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 16.9 | 6.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.8) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | 4.9 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 5.2 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 29.8 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 8.9 | 20.4 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 32.9 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 9.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 2.4 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 10.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | 3.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 13.2 | 14.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 19.3 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 6.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.1) | 10.4 | 16.5 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 9.4 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.8 | 5.6 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 6.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +1.2) | 12.0 | 22.8 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 10.6 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 3.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 7.7 | 10.6 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.9) | 11.8 | 18.7 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 16.5 | 23.5 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 18.0 | 6.3 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 5.4 | 19.5 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 10.3 | 5.6 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 21.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 10.0 | 3.6 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse