Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 14.1 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 2.1 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 13.6 | 14.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 13.5 | 20.9 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 5.9 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 14.9 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 16.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 14.5 | 14.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 16.1 | 8.1 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 6.8 | 9.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 12.7 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | 0.8 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 11.0 | 0.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 8.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +1.4) | 26.2 | 5.8 | −20.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 9.3 | 16.5 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 5.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 14.9 | 14.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 1.7 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 13.6 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 18.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.6) | 14.7 | 6.5 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 2.4 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 9.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 2.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 5.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 0.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 1.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 23.7 | 26.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.4 | 0.0 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 13.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 23.3 | 39.1 | +15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 9.5 | 0.0 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 2.3 | 3.2 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.8 | 4.8 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 13.1 | 8.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 9.0 | 2.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 28.1 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 18.8 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 7.1 | 12.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 11.1 | 7.1 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 14.0 | 20.8 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | 2.6 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 12.1 | 3.7 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 12.2 | 2.5 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 7.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 33.3 | +20.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 14.7 | 6.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 3.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 6.9 | 0.0 | −6.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 12.6 | 26.8 | +14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 8.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.8) | 9.3 | 8.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 29.4 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 13.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.1 | 15.5 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 26.3 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 11.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 5.1 | 0.7 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.3 | 10.2 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 16.8 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 15.0 | 12.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 10.6 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 15.6 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 15.8 | 6.1 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 15.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 5.1 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.6) | 18.3 | 9.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse