Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 14.4 | 7.2 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 14.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 8.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 9.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 23.6 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 32.4 | +18.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 19.3 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 3.5 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 19.4 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 17.1 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 12.9 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 12.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 21.4 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 16.8 | 19.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 15.2 | 9.1 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 8.9 | 12.0 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 8.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 12.1 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 27.2 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 1.9 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 15.1 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 18.5 | 16.6 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.3) | 23.3 | 24.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 6.3 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 9.0 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 13.3 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 14.4 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 14.9 | 31.3 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 27.0 | +18.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 17.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.4 | 13.8 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.1 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 9.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 3.3 | 8.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 3.0 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.9) | 24.9 | 26.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 13.6 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 7.9 | 2.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 3.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 7.6 | 5.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 1.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 8.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.9) | 15.3 | 7.0 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.7) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 23.6 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 31.7 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 18.4 | 20.1 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 15.1 | 15.1 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 6.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 7.8 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse