Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Pre-snap motion: every call

Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.

2024 backtest

84–83–9

50.3% vs 48.6% baseline

Win rate 50.3% (95% 42.8%–57.8%) vs baseline 48.6%

2025 backtest

550–530–68

50.9% vs 50.8% baseline

Win rate 50.9% (95% 47.9%–53.9%) vs baseline 50.8%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

44–51–3

46.3% vs 53.8% baseline

Win rate 46.3% (95% 36.6%–56.3%) vs baseline 53.8%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR316–306–3450.8%50.5%
RB205–209–2549.5%50.6%
TE113–98–1853.5%50.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5455–443–6250.7%50.2%
0.5–1163–151–1451.9%51.0%
1+16–19–145.7%53.1%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pre-snap motion calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W8Romeo DoubsWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)11.810.2−1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)6.77.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Dontayvion WicksWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.33.1−5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Tank DellWR HOUFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.3)11.513.5+2.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W8Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.316.8+8.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.4)19.920.3+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.5)12.47.5−4.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W7Raheem MostertRB MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5)10.13.0−7.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.6)13.92.3−11.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.817.2+9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3)15.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7Kendrick BourneWR NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.82.4−1.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W7Alvin KamaraRB NOFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4)18.38.4−9.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.4)10.62.1−8.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)11.74.5−7.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W7James CookRB BUFFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)17.09.2−7.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Kevin HarrisRB NEBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected −0.5)9.710.5+0.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Keenan AllenWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.4)10.721.1+10.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W6David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)12.821.0+8.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W6J.K. DobbinsRB LACFade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3)18.618.2−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W6Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.524.0+15.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)17.913.7−4.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W6Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)11.117.7+6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)17.912.1−5.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.715.2−1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W5CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.111.4−8.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected +0.3)19.915.5−4.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)15.813.7−2.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Keenan AllenWR CHIBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)10.54.9−5.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)13.28.2−5.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.915.0+3.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jonathan TaylorRB INDFade (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected −0.3)14.219.8+5.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)17.020.8+3.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected −0.4)16.820.4+3.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W4De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected −0.3)16.15.9−10.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)16.519.8+3.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3)16.323.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Raheem MostertRB MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W3Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5)15.47.0−8.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected +0.3)22.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.26.6−4.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W3De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4)15.38.8−6.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W2CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3)23.919.0−4.9✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 19 of 19 · 1,844 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse