Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 5.9 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.7 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 12.8 | 8.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 10.5 | 4.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 5.8 | 10.3 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 4.1 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 23.0 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SF, expected −0.4) | 23.5 | 4.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 9.3 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 3.7 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | 5.6 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.9 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 11.0 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 4.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 12.0 | 8.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 9.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 32.4 | +18.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 3.5 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 21.4 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 16.8 | 19.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 16.6 | 17.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | -0.2 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 6.3 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs IND, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 15.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 3.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 8.5 | 17.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 6.1 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 3.3 | 8.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 7.8 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 3.0 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 13.6 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 7.9 | 2.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 31.7 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 14.6 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 6.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | 22.6 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 7.3 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.5) | 14.9 | 12.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 29.8 | +17.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 3.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 16.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 18.6 | 13.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 23.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 15.4 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 11.6 | 6.4 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 17.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 7.0 | 17.1 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 8.6 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 33.5 | +19.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 2.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 11.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 21.5 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 14.6 | 6.6 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 7.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 19.1 | 9.5 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 8.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 4.9 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 32.8 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 12.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 2.5 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 9.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BUF, expected +0.4) | 10.3 | 14.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 17.3 | 8.9 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 11.7 | 17.8 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 19.7 | 20.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 9.9 | 8.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 7.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 5.3 | 8.8 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 8.8 | 21.2 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 15.2 | 6.0 | −9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 4.1 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 20.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 15.3 | 26.5 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 8.5 | −10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 17.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 21.4 | 25.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 13.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 15.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 19.4 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse