Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.2 | 8.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 2.1 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 6.7 | 7.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 11.2 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | 7.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 1.5 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 5.0 | 7.1 | +2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 8.7 | 11.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 7.5 | 10.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 9.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 0.6 | −12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 8.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 9.2 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 7.1 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.9 | 16.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 11.4 | 14.3 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.8 | 6.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 2.8 | 1.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 7.8 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ProcheWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.7) | 13.8 | 3.1 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 17.1 | 18.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 8.8 | 16.6 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 7.7 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.2) | 19.1 | 15.2 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 14.7 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 3.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.6) | 15.3 | 6.0 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 16.6 | 17.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 8.7 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 21.7 | 11.1 | −10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 8.4 | 6.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 11.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 7.5 | 16.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 18.5 | 10.8 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 10.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 3.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 15.2 | 4.3 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 14.1 | 3.8 | −10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 19.8 | 9.4 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −1.1) | 19.4 | 28.1 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.6 | 4.4 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 10.7 | 10.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.7) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.4) | 25.3 | 37.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 8.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 15.4 | 14.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 13.7 | 16.1 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.2 | 1.6 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 7.7 | 5.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 9.6 | 8.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 2.2 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 14.2 | 5.8 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 12.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.5) | 12.5 | 3.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 9.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 8.4 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 3.2 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier RestrepoWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 1.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 7.9 | 25.4 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse