Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 13.9 | 24.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 15.7 | 6.2 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 12.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 11.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 2.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 15.9 | 7.1 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 3.3 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.9) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 24.4 | 35.1 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 24.7 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 11.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 8.9 | 5.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 10.1 | 15.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 1.6 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 1.7 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 2.3 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 11.4 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 6.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.4 | 5.6 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 7.8 | 8.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 4.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 16.2 | 20.7 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 12.1 | 15.0 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.6) | 17.0 | 11.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 17.6 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 13.9 | 24.2 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 15.9 | 8.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 20.9 | 6.2 | −14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.0 | 19.3 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 10.3 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 8.7 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 18.9 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 29.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | 2.6 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 8.3 | 10.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 9.5 | 4.9 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 9.3 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 3.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 17.2 | 16.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 11.6 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 4.8 | 7.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 7.6 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 20.1 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 7.4 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 21.2 | 30.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 19.1 | 20.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | 14.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 10.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | 8.4 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +1.4) | 21.7 | 21.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 17.9 | 11.3 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 4.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.7) | 15.0 | 9.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.7) | 22.1 | 14.3 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.6 | 6.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.8) | 13.5 | 14.2 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 17.9 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 17.1 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 6.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse