Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 14.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 3.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 18.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 14.8 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse