Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 11.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 2.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs SF, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 18.0 | 34.4 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 25.3 | 36.1 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 19.4 | 10.1 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.3 | 14.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 8.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 5.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 12.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 2.9 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 23.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.8 | 14.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 3.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 15.0 | 7.0 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 8.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | 18.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 25.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 9.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 14.8 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 19.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 9.5 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 9.8 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 10.3 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 7.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Play action vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 6.1 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 18.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will LevisQB TEN | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 15.6 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 28.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 4.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 16.4 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 5.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 22.5 | 24.2 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 18.2 | 5.7 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 20.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 10.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 18.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 16.6 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 18.8 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 19.8 | 21.0 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 6.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 24.4 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 6.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 0.9 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 16.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse