Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 10.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 13.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 16.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 18.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 14.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse