Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C

Play action: every call

Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.

2024 backtest

64–72–9

47.1% vs 48.1% baseline

Win rate 47.1% (95% 38.9%–55.4%) vs baseline 48.1%

2025 backtest

–

no graded calls

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

0–1

0.0% vs 49.6% baseline

Win rate 0.0% (95% 0.0%–79.3%) vs baseline 49.6%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR29–36–244.6%48.1%
QB24–27–547.1%50.0%
TE11–9–255.0%43.5%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.559–67–946.8%48.1%
0.5–15–550.0%48.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Play action calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W18Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.213.3+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W17Nick VannettTE TENBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.87.8+6.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)6.20.0−6.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)13.220.9+7.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W15Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3)16.917.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W14Nick VannettTE TENBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)1.91.4−0.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)15.814.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)6.43.8−2.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3)10.718.9+8.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6voidBacktest ·
2024 W13Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.514.8+7.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W12Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)12.925.3+12.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Nick VannettTE TENFade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.91.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W11George KittleTE SFBoost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W11Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)6.27.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W11Ben SinnottTE WASFade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W10T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)9.015.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4)3.39.2+5.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3)8.216.8+8.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W7Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.817.2+9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Play action vs LAR, expected +0.3)13.619.3+5.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W6Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3)8.524.0+15.5✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse