Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 11.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 14.1 | 14.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 21.5 | 9.2 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 2.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs SF, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Play action vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 25.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 17.1 | 22.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Desmond RidderQB LV | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 18.0 | 34.4 | +16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.7 | 30.1 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.1 | 8.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 25.3 | 36.1 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 19.4 | 10.1 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 17.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 16.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 18.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 23.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 15.0 | 7.0 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 14.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 25.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 17.7 | 21.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 18.0 | 12.2 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 19.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 17.2 | 10.3 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 16.9 | 28.5 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Play action vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 19.3 | 34.6 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Play action vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 1.7 | −15.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 19.8 | 18.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will LevisQB TEN | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 15.6 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 28.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 24.6 | 23.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 20.6 | 29.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Play action vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 17.7 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 18.3 | 15.5 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 22.5 | 24.2 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 18.2 | 5.7 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 18.8 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 19.8 | 21.0 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 11.5 | 20.8 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 24.4 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 28.6 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.6 | 26.6 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Play action vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 16.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse