Matchup edge · QB myth · WR myth · TE C
Play action: every call
Defenses that give up more per play-action dropback boost players who earn many of their points on play action.
2024 backtest
64–72–9
47.1% vs 48.1% baseline
2025 backtest
–
no graded calls
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
0–1
0.0% vs 49.6% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 29–36–2 | 44.6% | 48.1% |
| QB | 24–27–5 | 47.1% | 50.0% |
| TE | 11–9–2 | 55.0% | 43.5% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 59–67–9 | 46.8% | 48.1% |
| 0.5–1 | 5–5 | 50.0% | 48.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 10.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 4.0 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | 13.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Play action vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 14.8 | +1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 22.2 | 13.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 9.4 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | 13.7 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 17.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.5 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 14.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 17.6 | 36.4 | +18.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 13.8 | 14.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.0 | 42.8 | +27.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.3 | 14.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 8.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 5.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | 12.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR TEN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 7.9 | 2.9 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 8.9 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 17.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.4) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.7) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 15.4 | 9.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 10.1 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 9.5 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.5) | 14.6 | 9.8 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Play action vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 28.4 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 7.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 6.1 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Play action vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 38.7 | +18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 22.6 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 9.8 | −7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 1.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 4.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 16.4 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Play action vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 3.2 | −8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 5.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Play action vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 15.1 | 18.7 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 29.7 | +14.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 6.2 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 11.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Play action vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 20.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 10.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.7 | 7.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 18.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 16.6 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Play action vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 6.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 6.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Play action vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 0.9 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 8.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Play action vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 2.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Play action vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 7.0 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse