Matchup edge · QB C
Pressure: every call
QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.
2024 backtest
12–14–3
46.2% vs 49.9% baseline
2025 backtest
38–33–3
53.5% vs 50.0% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–3–2
62.5% vs 50.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 50–47–6 | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 44–42–5 | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| 0.5–1 | 6–5–1 | 54.5% | 50.2% |
Call log
No calls match. (The call log fills once the track-record table is loaded.)
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse