Matchup edge · QB C
Pressure: every call
QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.
2024 backtest
12–14–3
46.2% vs 49.9% baseline
2025 backtest
38–33–3
53.5% vs 50.0% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–3–2
62.5% vs 50.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 50–47–6 | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 44–42–5 | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| 0.5–1 | 6–5–1 | 54.5% | 50.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 10.4 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs LV, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 17.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 19.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik WillisQB MIA | Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | 2.5 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 20.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 14.9 | 11.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Pressure vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 11.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 6.2 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 18.9 | 7.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Pressure vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 26.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 16.1 | 13.2 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 19.5 | 0.0 | −19.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3) | 16.2 | 8.8 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 20.5 | 21.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 6.1 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 21.3 | 32.4 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.5) | 18.0 | 23.0 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 16.4 | 12.7 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 31.2 | +15.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.3 | 17.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 19.9 | 14.6 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 15.4 | 13.9 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 44.3 | +25.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 15.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | 18.1 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 9.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 9.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam WardQB TEN | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 11.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 23.3 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 14.0 | 17.1 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 10.6 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 14.2 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 22.3 | 7.2 | −15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 17.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 7.3 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 8.3 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 22.2 | 16.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 19.6 | 21.7 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 21.9 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 19.1 | 13.3 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 4.7 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Pressure vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 16.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.5 | 7.9 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 10.3 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 20.8 | 26.9 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Pressure vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 10.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.6 | 14.7 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 19.0 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 19.0 | 9.0 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 15.8 | 4.4 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 19.8 | 38.7 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 17.8 | 27.2 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 24.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 6.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 21.6 | 23.2 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 28.3 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 14.4 | 26.0 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 16.2 | 4.0 | −12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Fade (Pressure vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.5 | 17.6 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 12.2 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 12.2 | 28.4 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 15.3 | 4.9 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 8.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 19.4 | 20.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 15.2 | 22.7 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 19.8 | 19.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 5.4 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Pressure vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 27.1 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 19.2 | 23.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 19.3 | 14.6 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 23.8 | 26.3 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 14.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 22.8 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 14.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.5 | 34.6 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Pressure vs NE, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Pressure vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 22.3 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.6 | 22.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 121 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse