Matchup edge · QB C
Pressure: every call
QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.
2024 backtest
12–14–3
46.2% vs 49.9% baseline
2025 backtest
38–33–3
53.5% vs 50.0% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–3–2
62.5% vs 50.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 50–47–6 | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 44–42–5 | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| 0.5–1 | 6–5–1 | 54.5% | 50.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.1 | 20.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 19.4 | 19.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 7.7 | 7.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 19.8 | 19.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.6 | 22.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 19.3 | 19.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse