Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C

Pressure: every call

QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.

2024 backtest

12–14–3

46.2% vs 49.9% baseline

Win rate 46.2% (95% 28.8%–64.5%) vs baseline 49.9%

2025 backtest

38–33–3

53.5% vs 50.0% baseline

Win rate 53.5% (95% 42.0%–64.6%) vs baseline 50.0%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

5–3–2

62.5% vs 50.2% baseline

Win rate 62.5% (95% 30.6%–86.3%) vs baseline 50.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB50–47–651.5%50.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.544–42–551.2%49.9%
0.5–16–5–154.5%50.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pressure calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Pressure vs NYG, expected +0.3)17.310.4−6.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.420.9+6.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Pressure vs IND, expected +0.3)15.911.7−4.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.6)16.113.2−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3)16.28.8−7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Joe BurrowQB CINFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)20.521.1+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)15.56.1−9.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.6)16.412.7−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Trevor LawrenceQB JAXFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6)16.231.2+15.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3)19.914.6−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.5)16.619.0+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)13.39.1−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Cam WardQB TENFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)9.211.1+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)19.711.6−8.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Marcus MariotaQB WASFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4)13.423.3+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3)21.86.5−15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Brock PurdyQB SFFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.4)14.017.1+3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Geno SmithQB LVFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)12.914.2+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)22.37.2−15.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.5)20.17.3−12.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3)14.08.3−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3)22.216.0−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.4)19.621.7+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Pressure vs BUF, expected −0.3)14.416.8+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3)18.93.3−15.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)15.57.9−7.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)19.09.0−10.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)17.828.3+10.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.5)14.426.0+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Justin FieldsQB NYJBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)16.24.0−12.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Trevor LawrenceQB JAXFade (Pressure vs LAR, expected −0.3)15.517.6+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3)14.812.2−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6)12.228.4+16.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)23.826.3+2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)20.114.0−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Daniel JonesQB INDFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.022.8+7.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)17.326.0+8.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W16Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Pressure vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.222.3+4.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Jameis WinstonQB CLEFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)12.815.3+2.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W14Will LevisQB TENBoost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3)15.07.0−8.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3)17.215.6−1.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Pressure vs LV, expected +0.3)20.816.6−4.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)18.710.2−8.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W13Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Pressure vs ATL, expected +0.3)17.68.0−9.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W13C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3)16.714.4−2.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3)16.710.2−6.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W10Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Pressure vs NE, expected +0.3)16.06.3−9.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Derek CarrQB NOBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)15.913.4−2.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W9Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Pressure vs KC, expected −0.3)14.018.0+4.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Pressure vs DAL, expected −0.3)20.226.0+5.8❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse