Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C

Pressure: every call

QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.

2024 backtest

12–14–3

46.2% vs 49.9% baseline

Win rate 46.2% (95% 28.8%–64.5%) vs baseline 49.9%

2025 backtest

38–33–3

53.5% vs 50.0% baseline

Win rate 53.5% (95% 42.0%–64.6%) vs baseline 50.0%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

5–3–2

62.5% vs 50.2% baseline

Win rate 62.5% (95% 30.6%–86.3%) vs baseline 50.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB50–47–651.5%50.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.544–42–551.2%49.9%
0.5–16–5–154.5%50.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Pressure calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Pressure vs LV, expected −0.3)19.117.0−2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik WillisQB MIAFade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3)9.62.5−7.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.6)14.911.3−3.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Trevor LawrenceQB JAXFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.96.2−9.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.5)18.97.7−11.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Pressure vs ARI, expected +0.3)22.326.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jared GoffQB DETFade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.82.1−15.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)21.332.4+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.5)18.023.0+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)19.86.9−12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)16.317.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5)15.413.9−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)18.744.3+25.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Cam WardQB TENBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3)10.615.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)13.018.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Geno SmithQB LVFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5)11.39.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Shedeur SandersQB CLEBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4)8.710.6+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.4)16.59.9−6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.3)16.621.9+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.8)19.113.3−5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)17.44.7−12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Caleb WilliamsQB CHIFade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.410.3−7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4)20.826.9+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Geno SmithQB LVFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.6)11.74.4−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Pressure vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.710.8−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.614.7−5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)10.219.0+8.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9C.J. StroudQB HOUFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.7)15.84.4−11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.4)19.838.7+18.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4)17.827.2+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Pressure vs NYJ, expected +0.3)18.124.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5)18.36.6−11.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)21.623.2+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Pressure vs SF, expected +0.4)16.521.7+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)18.122.3+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5)15.34.9−10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Dillon GabrielQB CLEFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)9.78.8−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Pressure vs CIN, expected +0.3)19.420.1+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.5)15.222.7+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jake BrowningQB CINFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.5)12.65.4−7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Justin FieldsQB NYJBoost (Pressure vs MIA, expected +0.3)16.627.1+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)19.223.2+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Justin HerbertQB LACFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4)19.314.6−4.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Joe FlaccoQB INDBoost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3)14.114.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W18Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)25.823.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)20.534.6+14.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W17Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Pressure vs NE, expected +0.3)17.424.4+7.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3)22.320.5−1.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W16Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)18.820.4+1.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W15Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3)16.915.8−1.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W12Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4)19.128.8+9.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W10Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.516.5−0.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W8Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3)16.224.1+7.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W7Brock PurdyQB SFFade (Pressure vs KC, expected −0.3)17.917.2−0.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Gardner MinshewQB LVFade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.17.7−3.5✅Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse