Matchup edge · QB C

Pressure: every call

QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.

2024 backtest

12–14–3

46.2% vs 49.9% baseline

2025 backtest

38–33–3

53.5% vs 50.0% baseline

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

5–3–2

62.5% vs 50.2% baseline

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

Position	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
QB	50–47–6	51.5%	50.0%

Expected effect (PPR)	W–L–P	Win %	Baseline
0.25–0.5	44–42–5	51.2%	49.9%
0.5–1	6–5–1	54.5%	50.2%

Call log

SeasonAll 2024 2025 2026

SourceAll Backtest Backtest (after the fact)Live

PositionAll QB

ResultAll ✅ Win ❌ Loss Push Void Not graded

Pressure calls, newest first
Week	Player	Call	Proj	Actual	Margin	Result	Source · made
2026 W4	Jared GoffQB DET	Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3)	20.1	20.5	+0.4	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 22:50 UTC
2026 W4	Jacoby BrissettQB ARI	Boost (Pressure vs NYG, expected +0.3)	17.3	10.4	−6.9	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 15:30 UTC
2026 W4	Patrick MahomesQB KC	Fade (Pressure vs LV, expected −0.3)	19.1	17.0	−2.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Brock PurdyQB SF	Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.4)	19.4	19.6	+0.3	push	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:55 UTC
2026 W4	Malik WillisQB MIA	Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.3)	9.6	2.5	−7.1	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-10-04 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	Matthew StaffordQB LAR	Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)	14.4	20.9	+6.5	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 22:50 UTC
2026 W3	Baker MayfieldQB TB	Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.6)	14.9	11.3	−3.6	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 18:35 UTC
2026 W3	C.J. StroudQB HOU	Boost (Pressure vs IND, expected +0.3)	15.9	11.7	−4.2	❌	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-27 15:30 UTC
2026 W2	Trevor LawrenceQB JAX	Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3)	15.9	6.2	−9.7	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 18:35 UTC
2026 W2	Caleb WilliamsQB CHI	Fade (Pressure vs MIN, expected −0.5)	18.9	7.7	−11.2	✅	Backtest (after the fact) · 2026-09-20 15:30 UTC

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse