Matchup edge · QB C
Pressure: every call
QBs who hold up under pressure (scramblers, quick processors) lose less against high-pressure defenses; fragile pocket QBs lose more.
2024 backtest
12–14–3
46.2% vs 49.9% baseline
2025 backtest
38–33–3
53.5% vs 50.0% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
5–3–2
62.5% vs 50.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 50–47–6 | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 44–42–5 | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| 0.5–1 | 6–5–1 | 54.5% | 50.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 14.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 20.5 | 34.6 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Pressure vs NE, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Pressure vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 22.3 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 21.6 | 22.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 15.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 15.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 7.0 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3) | 17.2 | 15.6 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Pressure vs LV, expected +0.3) | 20.8 | 16.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 18.7 | 10.2 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Pressure vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 8.0 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Pressure vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 19.3 | 19.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Pressure vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 16.7 | 14.4 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 19.1 | 28.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Pressure vs NE, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Pressure vs KC, expected −0.3) | 14.0 | 18.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Pressure vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Pressure vs NO, expected +0.3) | 16.2 | 24.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Pressure vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 17.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Pressure vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 7.7 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Pressure vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.2 | 26.0 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse