Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C
Red-zone defense: every call
Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.
2024 backtest
–
no graded calls
2025 backtest
57–47–5
54.8% vs 50.9% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–0
100.0% vs 38.2% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 13–14–1 | 48.1% | 50.5% |
| RB | 38–24–4 | 61.3% | 50.8% |
| TE | 6–9 | 40.0% | 52.2% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 53–43–5 | 55.2% | 50.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 4–4 | 50.0% | 53.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Red-zone defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 21.3 | 22.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 22.2 | 11.7 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Red-zone defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Red-zone defense vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 4.8 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 20.3 | 1.5 | −18.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 18.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 8.3 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | 1.3 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 15.2 | 21.9 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Red-zone defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 16.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 20.1 | 39.9 | +19.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 14.2 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.8) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 9.3 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.4) | 17.0 | 22.8 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Red-zone defense vs IND, expected −0.4) | 23.7 | 32.6 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 0.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 16.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 16.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.6) | 24.9 | 15.7 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 9.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 14.7 | 23.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 19.2 | 15.1 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 18.2 | 31.1 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 22.0 | 9.8 | −12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Red-zone defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 6.4 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 25.3 | 37.0 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 14.2 | 5.8 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 10.4 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 11.2 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 2.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | 11.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | 8.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.6) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.4) | 12.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 17.2 | 16.6 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 11.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 19.7 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 22.0 | 7.7 | −14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 22.1 | 5.8 | −16.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 13.5 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 17.9 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 10.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 19.5 | 32.0 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 17.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 19.3 | 4.9 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 23.0 | 16.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Red-zone defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 20.6 | 22.5 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 18.2 | 26.9 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse