Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C

Red-zone defense: every call

Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.

2024 backtest

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no graded calls

2025 backtest

57–47–5

54.8% vs 50.9% baseline

Win rate 54.8% (95% 45.2%–64.0%) vs baseline 50.9%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–0

100.0% vs 38.2% baseline

Win rate 100.0% (95% 20.6%–100.0%) vs baseline 38.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR13–14–148.1%50.5%
RB38–24–461.3%50.8%
TE6–940.0%52.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.553–43–555.2%50.7%
0.5–14–450.0%53.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Red-zone defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.4)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.87.9−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.613.5−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.5)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.01.0−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)7.77.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs IND, expected −0.3)14.224.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3)9.84.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15George KittleTE SFBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.4)12.022.8+10.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)10.03.6−6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)18.510.8−7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)9.520.6+11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Travis KelceTE KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.324.1+13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)18.627.5+8.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Red-zone defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.323.4+14.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Red-zone defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)8.19.2+1.1❌Backtest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse