Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Russell GageWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Willie SneadWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse