Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)17.829.4+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.76.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.40.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.411.4−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Matthew GoldenWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.011.5+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Robert WoodsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Justin WatsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Braxton BerriosWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Christian KirkWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.116.4+11.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Diontae JohnsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)6.13.2−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.58.5−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)4.00.7−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)7.34.1−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.617.0+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)4.70.9−3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)3.90.0−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jared WayneWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tank DellWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jayden HigginsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.213.8+8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jaylin NoelWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.81.9−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.919.5+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)11.810.4−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler JohnsonWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)5.10.0−5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irvin CharlesWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11John Metchie IIIWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.013.5+10.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11DeMario DouglasWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)9.26.1−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.61.6−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Adonai MitchellWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.32.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kyle WilliamsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.40.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Efton Chism IIIWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.70.0−3.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)4.39.4+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)15.65.4−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trent SherfieldWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Alex BachmanWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tre TuckerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.85.5−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shedrick JacksonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ramel KeytonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)13.415.0+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Pat BryantWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)4.05.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)5.21.4−3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jack BechWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9DeAndre HopkinsWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.00.0−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.21.7−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.74.2−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)9.29.3+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)15.614.2−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)17.611.4−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)8.37.1−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tahj WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)1.10.1−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9LaJohntay WesterWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Adam ThielenWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)3.30.0−3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Keenan AllenWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.08.4−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ CharkWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)16.014.4−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jalen ReagorWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dez FitzpatrickWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jalen NailorWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)6.20.0−6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Quentin JohnstonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)12.60.0−12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Derius DavisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)12.811.6−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Brenden RiceWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jaylen JohnsonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ladd McConkeyWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)13.020.8+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tre HarrisWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.88.8+6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 4 · 301 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse