Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5) | 11.8 | 19.3 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 13.5 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 2.1 | 6.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 17.1 | 32.3 | +15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 15.0 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 5.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 23.6 | 25.6 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 9.9 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 9.0 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.5) | 19.6 | 25.3 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | 19.7 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 20.8 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 9.5 | 18.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 0.1 | 1.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 8.8 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.9 | 22.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 14.4 | 26.0 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 8.4 | 11.8 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 6.6 | 14.4 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 21.6 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 6.0 | 28.1 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 19.5 | 38.1 | +18.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 15.4 | 19.8 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 7.9 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 3.7 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 9.5 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 19.5 | 20.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 20.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 12.0 | 23.6 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 31.0 | +17.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 25.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 5.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 6.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 21.6 | 27.9 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 24.2 | +15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 9.2 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mac JonesQB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 12.1 | 22.2 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 17.1 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 4.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3) | 23.3 | 24.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 5.3 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | 3.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 15.3 | 16.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 7.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 10.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 12.4 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 5.3 | 12.2 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 18.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 10.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 3.6 | 6.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 14.9 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 6.1 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 19.7 | 20.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 14.5 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 4.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 8.1 | 17.6 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 1.6 | 7.5 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 9.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 8.5 | 18.4 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 17.5 | 20.9 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 11.8 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 8.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 4.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 8.2 | 24.4 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 4.9 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 1.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.2 | 4.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.3 | 9.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.2 | 4.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.3 | 10.9 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse