Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | 17.7 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.4 | 5.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 3.3 | 7.1 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 5.2 | 10.5 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 10.8 | 16.5 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 22.8 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 5.6 | 12.3 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.3 | 20.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 18.1 | 24.1 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | 9.9 | +8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 15.5 | 34.4 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 14.5 | 23.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 3.8 | 7.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 9.6 | 12.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 1.5 | 14.7 | +13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL) | 15.2 | 23.4 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 11.9 | 31.5 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 7.9 | 15.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB) | 14.7 | 33.4 | +18.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 8.2 | 13.1 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 10.7 | 11.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.8 | 4.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 16.3 | 23.1 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 14.3 | 21.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 1.9 | 6.4 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 6.7 | 14.3 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 8.6 | 13.8 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 6.7 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.8 | 14.8 | +10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE) | 7.2 | 9.8 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 4.0 | 11.3 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.8 | 4.2 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 14.8 | 28.5 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 7.2 | 10.6 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.3 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF) | 17.9 | 29.5 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | 3.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 151 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse