Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Cooper KuppWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.16.9−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)14.519.5+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)8.64.1−4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam AkersRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rashid ShaheedWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.69.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Velus Jones Jr.RB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)14.111.5−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)11.725.4+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Brady RussellRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.65.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)7.617.4+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Blake CorumRB LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.413.1+6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.82.9−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)8.015.0+7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Nick KallerupTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Robbie OuztsRB SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ricky White IIIWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)3.012.3+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.5)10.426.9+16.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.419.2+11.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sterling ShepardWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)9.814.0+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.5)17.419.2+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)4.513.8+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Darnell MooneyWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)10.96.5−4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)1.33.2+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris BlairWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)10.145.6+35.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Rachaad WhiteRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)9.03.6−5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler AllgeierRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)6.11.8−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Ko KieftTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cade OttonTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Owen WrightRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)19.229.5+10.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Rakim JarrettWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ryan MillerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.86.7+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dylan DrummondWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)5.30.0−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Payne DurhamTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trey PalmerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Bucky IrvingRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)14.08.1−5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kameron JohnsonWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Devin CulpTE TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2)0.77.6+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jalen McMillanWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.65.8−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Emeka EgbukaWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)13.410.4−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tez JohnsonWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)5.90.0−5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Josh WilliamsRB TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joe FlaccoQB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.5)16.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)14.015.5+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13DeAndre HopkinsWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)6.24.5−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)20.917.4−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dak PrescottQB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.5)19.120.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jared GoffQB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.5)17.020.6+3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Patrick RicardRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.4+0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Samaje PerineRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)5.35.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Robert TonyanTE KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)5.20.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Patrick MahomesQB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.5)22.029.4+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)12.19.0−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.3+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.98.4+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)11.68.7−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5)21.86.5−15.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)7.43.9−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Miles SandersRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.77.6+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Drew SampleTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)3.02.7−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.51.3−5.2✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 8 · 711 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse