Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 13.1 | 19.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 11.3 | 14.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.6 | 10.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 14.6 | 26.1 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.5 | 13.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.3 | 13.5 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.4 | 14.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.6 | 5.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.7 | 5.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 14.2 | 8.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.9 | 16.8 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.4 | 2.8 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 11.7 | 17.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.9 | 1.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 19.6 | 33.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 20.5 | 18.7 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 12.2 | 6.9 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 5.4 | 5.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.7 | 1.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.4 | 14.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse