Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W10DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shedrick JacksonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris CollierRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dylan LaubeRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ramel KeytonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler HuntleyQB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)20.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Devontez WalkerWR BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Will DisslyTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8DJ CharkWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trayveon WilliamsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jalen ReagorWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Dez FitzpatrickWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Brenden RiceWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jaylen JohnsonWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brandon JohnsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jermaine BurtonWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj BrooksRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6John RossWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khari BlasingameRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Britain CoveyWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben VanSumerenRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier GipsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tank BigsbyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)14.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Darius CooperWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Chris ConleyWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Trent TaylorWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Russell GageWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brandon AiyukWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jacob CowingWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Zach PascalWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 7 · 643 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse