Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brandon JohnsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jermaine BurtonWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj BrooksRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6John RossWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khari BlasingameRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Britain CoveyWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben VanSumerenRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier GipsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tank BigsbyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)14.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Darius CooperWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Chris ConleyWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Trent TaylorWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Russell GageWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brandon AiyukWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jacob CowingWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody SchraderRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Zach PascalWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Pharaoh BrownTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4James ConnerRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Steven SimsWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tony JonesRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tyler MabryTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Simi FehokoWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)10.60.1−10.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.90.0−1.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Robbie OuztsRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.90.0−5.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Jamison CrowderWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris MooreWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Robbie ChosenWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2River CracraftWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2K.J. OsbornWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Tay MartinWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Treylon BurksWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)8.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.00.0−4.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Ben SimsTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Jayden ReedWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)9.40.0−9.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W2MarShawn LloydRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 3 · 296 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse